Authors

Discussion

This paper examines the effects of the EU–Moldova Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) on Transnistria. Drawing on trade data, official documents, and interviews, the paper shows that the DCFTA has opened significant new economic opportunities for Transnistrian exporters, resulting in a measurable reorientation of the region’s foreign trade towards the EU. This economic shift has, in turn, created incentives for a set of modest but notable confidence-building measures (CBMs) between Chişinău and Tiraspol, including greater administrative coordination and sector-specific forms of technical cooperation. Yet the paper also shows that these dynamics do not amount to a breakthrough in conflict settlement. Despite deeper market integration and limited functional spill-overs, geopolitical considerations—particularly Russia’s leverage, regional security tensions, and the persistence of incompatible status preferences—continue to dominate the conflict’s political trajectory. The findings nuance assumptions embedded in EU trade-for-peace approaches: while the DCFTA can foster pragmatic cooperation and reduce transaction costs across the dividing line, it remains insufficient to overcome entrenched geopolitical constraints. The paper thus contributes to broader debates on the limits and possibilities of confidence-building in the contested spaces of the European–Russian security “grey zone.”