Authors

Discussion

The Future of the Visegrád Group: Will Populist Leaders Strengthen or Weaken the Alliance?

The Visegrád Group is a cultural and political alliance of four Eastern European countries: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia (and sometimes Austria seems to be an occasional unofficial interloper).  While the group, in recent years, had little serious division between them, the Russian invasion of Ukraine became a more divisive issue among the alliance. Poland and the Czech Republic have been strong supporters of Ukraine, while Hungary and Slovakia see the Ukrainian problem as having been caused by the EU and NATO, and have held back full endorsement of for Ukraine—as well as the Western position in this struggle.

Following the elections in the Czech Republic in October, Populists leaders are now at the forefront of government in all four Visegrád nations.  The wild card in this is the Hungarian elections in the spring of 2026, but for now I will focus on the impact of Populism on the future of the Visegrád Group.

As recently as May of 2024, the V4 leaders’ council attempted to work through some of its difficulties arising form their varying positions on Ukraine.  By the end of the conference, the leaders issued a statement in which they all state that Russia was in violation of international law, and the Ukraine needed assistance.  However, the statement provides a lot of empty rhetoric. 

As of October, 2025, with Andrej Babis’ populist party now in power, it suggests there may be now a Visegrád shift in backing for Ukraine.  According to Lesia Ogryzko and Karel Solar, Babis has promised to stop sending ammunition to Ukraine.  Back in August of 2025, Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s new Populist President, vetoed further aid to Ukrainian refugees.  Thus as Ogryzko and Solar argue, “The Visegrád group now stands revived as a nationalist force in the middle of Europe.” 

For all hype about the Visegrád Group falling apart a year ago, it now seems poised to strengthen itself, it the leaders of all four countries agree to work together, and not only for their own country’s best interest.  This may be their greatest challenge.  However, among these leaders, the opportunity to stand up to the EU will likely galvanized these four nations together to produce a more vigorous Visegrád Group for the future. Indeed, it may cause a shift of the balance of power in Europe. 

This paper will be developed with a daily eye on development in The Visegrád Group with regard to their potential unity, as well as their positioning on everything from support—or lack of—for Ukraine as well as their membership and commitments within the EU—it promises to be a very interesting time to consider the future of The