Authors

Discussion

This paper examines the emergence of Russia’s dependence on non-renewables through a long-term, historical perspective. The theoretical motivation rests on the premise that the impact of external shocks depends on their alignment with an economy’s structural weaknesses. In the Russian case, long-standing reliance on natural resources, particularly oil and gas, shapes its current economic fragility. However, despite the centrality of hydrocarbons to Russia’s economy, the historical roots of this dependence remain insufficiently explored, resulting in fragmented insights rather than a coherent account.

Against this backdrop, the paper traces the roots of hydrocarbon reliance of Russia and highlights how it evolved through a contingent interplay between domestic dynamics and external factors. In contrast to prevailing narratives that place the origins of dependence in the wake of the 1970s oil shocks, the study demonstrates that a decisive shift toward hydrocarbons was already being consolidated during the 1950s, when changes in the internal energy balance and export strategy reshaped the economic structure. Rather than treating resource dependence as a predetermined outcome of natural endowment, the study argues that it was actively shaped by specific policies and historical events. By linking internal economic transformations with international conditions and shocks, the paper demonstrates that Russia’s trajectory of dependence reflects strategically constructed choices and responses rather than a purely inevitable pathway.

The study employs a newly reconstructed long-run dataset of resource extraction and exports, harmonized across regimes and statistical sources to ensure historical consistency. This enables a comprehensive examination of the evolution of Russia’s resource dependence over time. Structural break tests are applied to identify key turning points in export dependence, which are further decomposed by commodity to assess commodity-specific dynamics. This approach allows for linking statistically identified breaks to concrete historical events and policy decisions, anchoring econometric results within a broader historical narrative.

The paper contributes to the literature not only by assembling a novel long-run dataset, but also by constructing a historical narrative that traces the evolution of Russia’s resource dependence since the late nineteenth century. It identifies critical turning points in this trajectory and connects them to specific events and policies, thereby uncovering the structural roots of dependence. In doing so, the study provides both an empirical foundation and historical context for understanding the persistence of resource-based vulnerabilities till nowadays. Ultimately, it offers a basis for evaluating the resilience of the contemporary Russian economy in the face of external shocks, situating current developments within a long-term structural trajectory.