Authors

Discussion

Title:

How resilient is Russian “homeland resilience”: How Moscow is preparing the country domestically for the “times of troubles” to come

Authors:

Marina Miron (marina.miron@kcl.ac.uk) and Rod Thornton (rod.thornton@kcl.ac.uk), both Defence Studies Department, King’s College London

Abstract

At a time when NATO states are taking an increased interest in the issue of ‘homeland resilience’, it can be instructive to consider the analogous measures being taken in Russia. This paper thus investigates (using predominantly Russian-language sources) the efforts being made by the Russian state apparatus in terms of homeland resilience. That is, how is the administration of President Vladimir Putin preparing the country for what could be a period of intense hardship over the coming years as the effects of the war with Ukraine come to bite and as a potential future conflict with NATO looms? There are numerous facets to the measures being taken: the population itself needs to be made ready so that ‘societal resilience’ remains firm; the economy needs to be future-proofed against increased pressures; various elements of critical national infrastructure (CNI) need to be protected; a series of redundancy measures needs to be put into place, and IT systems need to be hardened against potential offensive cyber operations by adversary states.

The Russian state already has considerable capacity in this field of homeland resilience. Virtually all of the Soviet structures related to maintaining societal and infrastructure resilience in the event of a major disaster/catastrophe have, since the end of the Cold War, been retained to one degree or another. The Emergency Situations Ministry (EMERCOM) is still, for instance, a very large and well-equipped organisation and a significant asset in disaster-management terms. And while this paper does consider a range of ‘physical’ assets such as EMERCOM and other measures being taken in this physical realm (such as in regard to CNI), this paper actually has its focus on how society itself is being prepared for a ‘time of troubles’. How is the country being ‘psychologically’ prepared? How is Putin trying to increase patriotic values? How are young men being persuaded to join the military? How are young Russians being inculcated into serving the state? How is the media being co-opted to act as a purveyor of narratives that serve the state?

Ultimately, what this paper seeks to do is to draw some comparisons between what is happening in Russia in terms of developing homeland resilience measures and what is happening in NATO and EU countries. Is Russia taking this issue more seriously than NATO/EU states and what might be the knock-on effects of any disparity in preparedness between the two?

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