Authors

Kenneth Wilson¹;  ¹ Dongguk University, South Korea

Discussion

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked the world. The attack was widely viewed as an unprovoked act of aggression, and one that would likely prove costly for Russia. Bellicose, and even irrational, foreign-policy choices, however, are a feature of the kind of personalist authoritarian regime that exists in Russia. Such personalist authoritarian systems, where power is concentrated in the hands of an individual, are more likely to initiate conflict than any other regime type. Personalist leaders do not face significant constraints on their decision making, often have grandiose foreign-policy ambitions, are less likely to perceive high costs of using military force, and tend to overestimate the likelihood of victory. Understanding why personalist authoritarians tend to be more belligerent than other leaders helps explain Vladimir Putin’s rash decision to invade Ukraine. Putin’s actions, moreover, constitute an additional warning of the dangers presented by such leaders.