Discussion
This paper examines how the global security climate has shaped Estonian public opinion on security threats and national defense over the past 25 years. Long-term public opinion data indicate that Estonians, who the Soviet Union occupied for almost half a century after the Second World War, view Russia as their primary security threat. We can also identify clear “Zeitenwende” moments or turning points, especially after the 2007 Bronze Soldier crisis, the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, each marking a significant and lasting shift in the perception of the Russian threat. We argue that the turning point, or “Zeitenwende”, should not be viewed merely as a reaction to a single event. Instead, it can be understood as the culmination of numerous internal and external occurrences that gradually shape public opinion. Ultimately, this process leads to a situation where a specific event acts as the “last drop that overflows the cup”, resulting in the “Zeitenwende”. However, since 22% of the Estonian population is ethnic Russians, there is a difference in assessments of the Russian threat among citizen groups: residents who speak Russian as their home language do not see the threat from Russia as significant as the rest.
The paper draws on a unique longitudinal dataset created through a national public opinion monitoring program initiated by the Estonian Ministry of Defense in 2000. Over the past two decades, 51 representative surveys have been conducted, involving over 50,000 respondents, providing a rare long-term perspective on how public opinion evolves in response to external security shocks and internal political transformations. The surveys cover perceived security threats, willingness to participate in defense, trust in institutions, and attitudes toward conscription and defense spending. The methodology has evolved from face-to-face interviews to a mixed-mode format combining online and telephone data collection, with consistent efforts to include both Estonian- and Russian-speaking populations.
