Since regaining independence, Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States have faced threats and interference from Russia. In order to undermine development and democratisation in these countries, Russian intelligence operations have encompassed the orchestration of conflicts, including the fomentation and support of separatist movements, the incitement of civic turmoil, and the strategic use of Russian-speaking minorities. Russia’s effective instruments for undermining democratic development in these states have also included the utilisation of former KGB agents who remained embedded within law enforcement and regulatory institutions, enabling the continuation of systemic corruption and strategically deploying it against these countries, the cultivation of oligarchic networks, and the strategic use of the Orthodox Church and post-Soviet intelligentsia. At that time, the concept of hybrid threats and hybrid warfare was largely unknown in the West, making it particularly difficult for Western partners to comprehend the true nature of events unfolding in Georgia and Ukraine. The West struggled to understand how Russia had systematically deployed these strategies over many years to obstruct and undermine the development and democratisation of these countries. Western discourse often focused on issues such as human rights, media freedom, and the independence of the judiciary, yet those analyses failed to address the critical internal security challenges faced by these countries.

My research examines the similarities and differences in the challenges these states faced in developing democracy after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It explains why Ukraine and Georgia have been unable to establish consolidated democracies, and why, in contrast, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have managed to do so.