Authors

Márk Stégmayer¹;  ¹ JKU Linz, Institute of Politics and Social Policy, Austria

Discussion

For nearly two decades after the regime change, Hungary was considered a role model of democratization in Central and Eastern Europe. Since the early 2000s, however, it has become clear that despite a seemingly robust democratic system, the country faces a number of significant challenges stemming from its socialist past and the challenges of the new millennium. In 2010, the Fidesz-KDNP coalition won a 2/3 majority in parliament for the first time in the Third Hungarian Republic, taking advantage of the economic and political crisis caused by the Great Recession and previous governments. The coalition led by Viktor Orbán set out to reform the country, but it did so by dismantling the liberal democratic order that had prevailed until then, thereby undermining Hungarian liberal democracy. The last decade and a half have clearly shown stages of autocratization in Hungary. Although several studies have shown that this period has been challenging for voters, support for the Orbán regime has remained strong. This has not been affected by various scandals, anti-democratic decisions, or the stagnating or declining economic outlook since the COVID crisis. This raises the question of why the regime may still be popular and what potential benefits it may bring to the electorate.

To answer this research question, this paper examines the process of autocratization and regime development, with a particular focus on the elements that keep regimes in power. The study also aims to show how the Orbán regime has brought to the electorate, whether these are deliberately created appeals of the regime or other unforeseen elements. To address the research problem, the paper presents a qualitative case study of the last decade and a half of the Orbán regime. It examines the main policies, reform packages and legislative changes of the last years as well as the speeches of the regime leader.

Several factors explain the regime's electoral success over the past 13 years. The research argues that the Orbán regime's comprehensive identity policy, with its strong emphasis on cultural Christianity, and its ability to create an impression of security is the key explanation the regime's appeal to the majority of Hungarian voters. The ability to foster a sense of belonging and security, coupled with Orbán's personal charisma, appears to be a crucial factor in the regime's longevity and popularity.