Authors

Discussion

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has completely changed the current situation and prospects of Russia's energy production and export. Under Western sanctions, Russia's energy production is in disarray. Upstream investment is declining, and the future production situation is not optimistic. Russia's energy export market has shifted from Europe to Asia, not only continuing the general trend of the past two decades, but also as a market and political choice under sanctions.

Energy production in Russia is influenced by both technology and markets. Under Western sanctions, the lack of technology and equipment, and the withdrawal of Western energy companies that owned them, has led to a very uncertain outlook for energy production in Russia. Major EU countries have stopped or reduced their energy imports from Russia, forcing Russia's energy products to turn to Asian markets. However, due to a lack of infrastructure and political sensitivities, this shift is not immediate and will require a long-term process, which is particularly evident in the natural gas sector.

Russia's energy production and exports are also affected by the global energy transition. In the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, major countries have re-intensified their fossil energy production and trade out of concern for energy security, but the general trend of global energy transition has become unstoppable. Russia's serious shortcomings in renewable energy technologies have become an important aspect of Russia's energy cooperation with other countries. In energy cooperation with China, for example, renewable energy has become an important element of cooperation.

Russia's energy exports are also influenced by political factors. Firstly, the West is trying to hurt the Russian economy by limiting the volume and price of Russian energy exports, thereby weakening Russia's military capabilities. At the moment, this does not seem to be working as well as it should. But the West's secondary sanctions against countries that cooperate with Russia are beginning to bite. Second, traditional Russian allies (such as the Central Asian countries) are very cautious about energy cooperation with Russia and are trying to limit the political influence from it and possible Western sanctions. Third, China, India and other important markets for Russian energy exports are also expanding their energy cooperation with Russia, while avoiding energy dependence on Russia and possible Western sanctions.

The combination of these factors has contributed to the great uncertainty and challenges which Russia's future energy production and exports will face.