Authors

Viktoriia Muliavka²; Jakob Frizell¹;  ¹ University of Bremen, Germany;  ² University of Bamberg, Germany

Discussion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked the return of large-scale conventional warfare to 21st century Europe, bringing immense financial costs and human sacrifices. While the ultimate fiscal consequences remain uncertain, historical experience suggests one likely outcome: a shift toward increased tax progressivity driven by war-induced demand for fairness.But does this prediction extend to the contemporary period, in a context of ample external assistance and liberal hegemony? 
In this paper, we utilize the specificities of the Ukrainian case to shed light on the link between war and tax progressivity, investigating its generalizability and underlying mechanisms. 
First, we show that notwithstanding a strong sense of national unity, pre-invasion corruption has endured, while the war has created new opportunities for self-enrichment and perceptively unsolidaric behaviour. Such practices, being highly visible, have been vehemently condemned as unpatriotic. 
Second, based on an original national survey, we find that Ukrainians overwhelmingly favor a more progressive distribution of war-related costs, in contrast to the current non-progressive tax system. 
Third, preference for tax progressivity is strongly associated with perceptions of unequal wartime burdens and illicit behaviour. Beyond self-interest and personal sacrifices, the results indicate that normative evaluations of war-time unfairness are key drivers of shifts in redistributive preference.