Friday, 31 March 2023 to Sunday, 2 April 2023

Unity on the Paths Forward? Continuity and Divergence among Ukrainian Attitudes on Post-War Priorities

Fri31  Mar03:00pm(15 mins)
Bute Hall


Anna Chebotarova1; Cynthia Buckley2
1 University of Oslo, ILOS, Norway;  2 University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, United States


After the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the support of president Zelensky has doubled, reaching an unprecedented 93%. Moreover, for the first time, the share of people who thought that things in the country are going in the right direction was 5 times higher than the share of opposite view holders. 
n our paper, we will revisit the “rally-round-the-flag” effect (Mueller 1970), which is characterized by sudden increases in public support for national leaders during war or security crises. We will look at the phenomenon of anti-aggression consensus in wartime society by adding in the issue of duration and pathways to possible diminishment. Drawing on original survey data (April 2022) as well as in-depth interviews with Ukrainian refugees and IDPs, we will discuss societal attitudes towards post-conflict priorities in Ukraine as a uniting and divisive issue. We will reflect upon the factors that prompt the RRTF effect, the perspectives of its post-crisis robustness as well as the impact of "pre-rally" distrust and disagreements on the priorities for post-conflict targets of action.