BASEES Annual Conference 2022

Forced green transformation: can the EU’s new green deal force Russia on the road to further decarbonisation?

Fri8  Apr02:20pm(20 mins)
CWB Plenary


Olga Khrushcheva


Russian climate policy is known to lack ambition. Russia can achieve its current climate targets without any major policy changes. The Russian government continues to prioritise fossil fuels in its energy strategy with the EU remaining to be the key market for Russian energy supplies. This paper will analyse if the European Green Deal and accelerated decarbonisation of the EU states can encourage change in Russia’s energy sector. The European Green Deal was designed to lead the EU to climate neutrality by 2050. If the EU succeeds with further decarbonisation of the economy, Russia will lose its share of the EU’s energy market. And it would be quite difficult for Russia to diversify the energy supplies away from the EU without the loss of revenue. Another key element of the new green deal for Russia is a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that the EU plans to introduce. To put it simply, the CBAM is a tax mechanism on goods that require a significant amount of energy to be produced. It is estimated with 42% of Russian exports to the EU are likely to be affected by this mechanism. This paper will evaluate if the New Green Deal as well as the commitment of other major international actors (Japan, China) to decarbonisation strategies will force Russia to up its own commitment to the green transformation. In particular, the paper will examine the hydrogen development strategy and its potential to transform the EU-Russia energy relations in the long term.